Budget 2016—Billed As ‘Growing the Middle Class’

Matt Chan • March 24, 2016

Today’s budget included everything I expected and nothing that I feared. The fears first— there is no change in the tax treatment of capital gains or stock options , despite continued rumours and speculation. Indeed, in a press conference in the lock-up, Minister Morneau said that stock options tax changes are off the table because they are so important to young innovative companies. There is also nothing in the budget designed to tighten credit conditions in the housing markets.

With respect to housing, Ottawa will support the collection of data regarding foreign purchases of Canadian residential real estate, providing additional funding to Stats Canada working with CMHC and British Columbia. Evidence-based assessment of the situation is important.1 Hopefully, governments at all levels will refrain from discouraging foreign investment in housing in a misplaced effort to create more affordable housing. The budget does express concern about affordable housing by investing $2.3 billion over two years for social infrastructure in communities where it is most needed, including $739 million for First Nations, Inuit and northern housing.

Budget 2016 states that “stable and secure housing markets protect the greatest investment of many middle class Canadian families. On December 11, 2015, the government announced coordinated actions to strengthen the resiliency of Canada’s housing finance system, increase market discipline in residential lending, and promote long-term stability and balanced economic growth. The government will continue to closely monitor vulnerabilities related to housing and consumer debt and is prepared to implement further measures, should they be needed.”

This is all good—no messing around with the housing market in this year’s budget, but reasserting a watchful eye on excesses and potential bubbles. There is a growing concern among U.S. hedge fund managers regarding the Canadian housing market and Canadian household debt as many expect a U.S.-style meltdown in Canada, similar to what happened in the U.S. in 2007-2009. This is nothing new, as Canadian pundits and media have been suggesting something similar for several years now. However, vigilance against fraud and insufficient qualifying conditions for credit is important to maintaining the financial stability of our economy and our financial institutions.

Household debt levels are at record highs relative to income and interest rates are at record lows. The Bank of Canada estimates that roughly 8% of households are severely indebted and vulnerable to rising interest rates in the future and/or a job loss owing to economic shocks. The oil price rout has already tested these conditions in Alberta and Newfoundland where credit card delinquency rates are already rising. The use of homes as piggy banks is a concern as home equity lines of credit have grown rapidly. As well, auto loans and credit card borrowing may well be too readily available for a segment of the population that is overstretched.

Budget Fundamentals

As expected, the current fiscal year budget deficit is forecast to come in at just shy of $30 billion ($29.4 billion, to be exact) and to fall only a bit next year (to $29.0 billion), nearly three times the size of deficit promised during the election campaign. As well, deficits will remain over the five-year forecast horizon. There is some cushion here in that these numbers include a $6 billion contingency reserve. But to the surprise of some, there is no estimate of when the federal budget will be balanced.

Despite these large deficits, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio–while rising in the fiscal year (FY) that begins April 1 from 31.2% to 32.5%–will fall over each of the next five years to end FY 2020-21 at 30.9%. Canada has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio by far in the G7, so no worries here. With interest rates so low, debt servicing costs have dropped sharply.

SUMMARY OF FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE FEBRUARY OUTLOOK
billions of dollars

The major initiatives in this budget were pre-announced. The biggest single spending item on the Liberal docket is the new Canada Child Benefit that swallows four former benefits — including the universal child care benefit and income splitting — into a single new payment targeting middle and lower income Canadian families. The program won’t roll out until July 1, however, as the federal government continues to fine-tune details with the provinces. With a maximum $6,400 a year per child under five and $5,400 annually for kids six to 17, the new benefit is an effort to reduce income equality. The Canada Child Benefit provides a net fiscal stimulus of $3.7 billion this year and $4.3 billion next year, accumulating to just under $8.0 billion over the next five years.

The middle class tax cut was announced last December effective January 1. While it is estimated to provide a net boost to the economy of $1.3 billion this year, the hike in tax rates for incomes over $200,000–which is called “the tax fairness measure” in the budget documents—is estimated to have a net negative economic impact of $0.7 billion over the same period. The negative impact of this tax increase could be substantially greater, especially over the longer term as it dampens entrepreneurial spirit and makes it more difficult to attract and retain talent and new high-growth businesses in Canada.

In addition, budget 2016 extends EI regular benefits by 5 weeks to all eligible claimants, and provides up to an additional 20 weeks of EI regular benefits to long-tenured workers, in the following EI economic regions:

• Newfoundland/Labrador
• Sudbury
• Northern Ontario
• Northern Manitoba
• Saskatoon
• Northern Saskatchewan
• Calgary
• Northern Alberta
• Southern Alberta
• Northern British Columbia
• Whitehorse
• Nunavut

Infrastructure spending increases in the budget are also pretty much as advertised. Phase 1 of the infrastructure plan provides $11.9 billion over five years for public transit, green investments and social infrastructure.

Ottawa estimates that the GDP impact of the combined fiscal stimulus will be 0.5% for FY 2016-17 and 1.0% for the following fiscal year. I forecast that the GDP growth rate in 2016 will be roughly 1.7%, rising to about 2.0% next year.

The big loser in this budget is the energy sector. The government repeatedly states in the budget documents that it will subsidize clean energy initiatives and reduce Canada’s carbon footprint. For example, “the government will invest in electric vehicle and alternative transportation fuel infrastructure.” Ottawa has promised that Canada will be a leader in addressing the causes of climate change. We already know the Liberals are not supporting the Gateway pipeline or pipeline development in general.

The assumption for oil prices in 2016 is $40 (U.S. per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude oil)—slightly above the current level and well above the lows posted early this year. Oil prices are expected to rise from there to $52 in 2017 and $63 in 2020, still well below the levels posted during the oil boom.

The other economic assumptions in the budget are consistent with the average of private sector forecasts, which have been revised down considerably from budget 2015 because of the larger than expected oil price decline. As well, the Canadian dollar is forecast in the budget to average 72.1 cents U.S. in 2016, well below current levels of 76 cents plus. The loonie is forecast to edge upward gradually over the next five years.

Bottom Line: While there will no doubt be quibbles about the specifics of today’s budget, the good news is that it will provide economic stimulus without threatening Canada’s solid financial position. There is no doubt we will maintain our triple-A rating. The government was urged by some to spend more and by others to spend less, so they have reached a reasonable balance without raising the tax burden further on high-income Canadians. The actions taken will help, at least at the margin, to assure a minimum standard of living for all.

FOOTNOTE:

1 Also on the data collection front, the government will re-introduce the long form census, a move that will be applauded by all economic and demographic researchers.

CONTACT

Share

RECENT POSTS

Assigning A Construction Mortgage

By Matthew Chan • August 13, 2025
One of the benefits of working with an independent mortgage professional is having lots of great financing options! Rather than dealing with a single lender with one set of products, independent mortgage professionals work with multiple lenders who offer a wide selection of mortgage financing options that provide more choice. Increased choice in mortgage products is beneficial when your situation isn’t “normal,” or you don’t quite fit the profile of a standard buyer. Purchasing a new construction home through an assignment contract would be a great example of this. Purchasing a new construction home through an assignment contract can be tricky as not every lender wants the added perceived risk of dealing with this type of transaction. Most of these lenders won’t come out and say it; instead, they add a significant list of qualifying conditions to make the process harder. The good news is, there are lenders available exclusively through the broker channel that have favourable policies for assignment purchases. Here are some of the highlights: All standard purchase qualifications apply, including applicable income verification, established credit, and required downpayment Assignments can be at the original purchase price or current market value Minimum 620 beacon score with no previous bankruptcies or consumer proposals The full downpayment must come from the purchaser and not include any incentives from the seller. As far as documentation goes, the lender will want to see the original purchase agreement signed by all parties, the MLS listing, the assignment agreement signed by the builder, the original purchaser, and the new buyer. The lender will also want to see the side agreement between the original purchaser and the new buyer, including the amended purchase price. The lender will want to substantiate the value through a full appraisal. Now, as every situation is different, this list of conditions is in no way exhaustive but meant to show that assigning a new construction purchase contract is doable while highlighting some of the terms necessary to secure financing. If you’re looking to purchase new construction through an assignment contract, or if you’d like to discuss purchasing a home through traditional means, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to outline the mortgage products on the market that won’t limit your financing options!

Deciphering the Latest Housing Affordability Initiatives in Canada

By Matthew Chan • August 6, 2025
In recent years, housing affordability has become a significant concern for many Canadians, particularly for first-time homebuyers facing soaring prices and strict mortgage qualification criteria. To address these challenges, the Canadian government has introduced several housing affordability measures. In this blog post, we'll examine these measures and their potential implications for homebuyers. Increased Home Buyer's Plan (HBP) Withdrawal Limit Effective April 16, the Home Buyer's Plan (HBP) withdrawal limit will be raised from $35,000 to $60,000. The HBP allows first-time homebuyers to withdraw funds from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to use towards a down payment on a home. By increasing the withdrawal limit, the government aims to provide young Canadians with more flexibility in saving for their down payments, recognizing the growing challenges of entering the housing market. Extended Repayment Period for HBP Withdrawals In addition to increasing the withdrawal limit, the government has extended the repayment period for HBP withdrawals. Individuals who made withdrawals between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2025, will now have five years instead of two to begin repayment. This extension provides borrowers with more time to manage their finances and repay the withdrawn amounts, alleviating some of the immediate financial pressures associated with using RRSP funds for a down payment. 30-Year Mortgage Amortizations for Newly Built Homes Starting August 1, 2024, first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes will be eligible for 30-year mortgage amortizations. This change extends the maximum mortgage repayment period from 25 years to 30 years, resulting in lower monthly mortgage payments. By offering longer amortization periods, the government aims to increase affordability and assist homebuyers in managing their housing expenses more effectively. Changes to the Canadian Mortgage Charter The government has also introduced changes to the Canadian Mortgage Charter to provide relief to homeowners facing financial challenges. These changes include early mortgage renewal notifications and permanent amortization relief for eligible homeowners. By implementing these measures, the government seeks to support homeowners in maintaining affordable mortgage payments and mitigating the risk of default during times of financial hardship. The recent housing affordability measures announced by the Canadian government are aimed at addressing the challenges faced by homebuyers in today's market. These measures include increasing withdrawal limits, extending repayment periods, and offering longer mortgage amortizations. The goal is to make homeownership more accessible and affordable for Canadians across the country. As these measures come into effect, it's crucial for homebuyers to stay informed about the changes and their implications. Consulting with a mortgage professional can help individuals explore their options and make informed decisions about their housing finances. If you're interested in learning more about these changes and how they may affect you, please don't hesitate to connect with us. We're here to walk you through the process and help you consider all your options and find the one that makes the most sense for you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

By Matthew Chan • July 30, 2025
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario July 30, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs. While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar. The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027. In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January. In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year. CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%. In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices. With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025. Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report