Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 13th, 2016

Matt Chan • July 13, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is on track to return to 2 per cent in 2017 as the complex adjustment underway in Canada’s economy proceeds. The fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over the projection horizon, albeit in a climate of heightened uncertainty.

In this context, the forecast for the global economy has been marked down slightly from the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.9 per cent in 2016, 3.3 per cent in 2017, and 3.5 per cent in 2018. In particular, after a weak start to 2016 the US economy is showing signs of a rebound, with a healthy labour market and solid consumption growth. In the wake of Brexit, global markets have materially re-priced a number of asset classes. Financial conditions, already accommodative, have become even more so.

In Canada, the quarterly pattern of growth has been uneven. Real GDP grew by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter but is estimated to have contracted by 1 per cent in the second quarter, pulled down by volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, and the Alberta wildfires. A pick-up to 3 1/2 per cent is expected in the third quarter as oil production resumes and rebuilding begins in Fort McMurray. Consumer spending will also get a boost from the Canada Child Benefit.

While the fundamental elements of the Bank’s projection are similar to those presented in April, the forecast has been revised down in light of a weaker outlook for business investment and a lower profile for exports, reflecting a downward adjustment to US investment spending. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2016, 2.2 per cent in 2017, and 2.1 per cent in 2018. The Bank projects above-potential growth from the second half of 2016, lifted by rising US demand and supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions. Federal infrastructure spending and other fiscal measures announced in the March budget will also contribute to growth.  Despite recent volatility, the Bank expects the underlying trend of export growth to continue, leading to a pick-up in business investment. Higher global oil prices are helping to stabilize Canada’s energy sector and household spending is expected to increase moderately.

The Bank forecasts that the output gap will close somewhat later than estimated in April, towards the end of 2017. Underlying this judgement is the downward revision to business investment, which lowers the profile for both real GDP and, to a lesser extent, potential output.  

While inflation has recently been a little higher than anticipated, largely due to higher consumer energy prices, it is still in the lower half of the Bank’s inflation-control range. Most measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent but would be lower without the impact of past exchange rate depreciation. The temporary effects of exchange-rate pass-through and past declines in consumer energy prices are expected to dissipate in late 2016, and the Bank projects that inflation will average close to 2 per cent throughout 2017 as the output gap narrows.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced, although the implications of the Brexit vote are highly uncertain and difficult to forecast. At the same time, financial vulnerabilities are elevated and rising, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report

CONTACT

Share

RECENT POSTS

By Matthew Chan July 29, 2026
What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You Online mortgage calculators are everywhere—and on the surface, they seem like a no-brainer. You plug in some numbers, and out pops what you can “afford.” Simple, right? Not quite. While the math itself is correct, the story behind those numbers is often misleading. Mortgage qualification isn’t just about numbers—it’s about context, risk, and lender policy. And that’s where calculators fall short. The Numbers Are Accurate—but the Picture Isn’t An online calculator can show you what a payment might look like at a given interest rate, or how making extra payments could reduce your amortization. That’s useful information! But when it comes to mortgage qualification , calculators don’t account for the many variables that lenders consider, such as: Your credit history and score Employment type (salary, self-employed, contract) Outstanding debts and monthly obligations Assets, savings, and down payment source The property type and location you’re buying Lenders evaluate all these factors through their internal risk models. That means two people entering the exact same numbers into a calculator could receive very different results when they actually apply for a mortgage. Why Online Calculators Can Mislead You When you see a “How much can I afford?” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator online, it’s easy to treat the result as fact. But these tools don’t know your financial story—they only crunch the data you enter. A calculator can’t predict how a lender views your risk, how new mortgage rules apply to your file, or how things like spousal support, car loans, or variable income will impact approval. In short: calculators estimate payments, not qualification . Use Calculators the Right Way Don’t get us wrong—online calculators still have value. Use them to explore different “what-if” scenarios: How do payments change with different down payment amounts? How would a rate increase affect affordability? What if you added $100 a month to your payments? These tools are great for helping you understand your comfort zone. Just remember: they’re a starting point, not a green light. The Real First Step: Get a Pre-Approval If you’re serious about buying a home, skip the guesswork and get a mortgage pre-approval . It’s quick, free, and gives you real-world clarity on what you can afford. A pre-approval looks at your full financial picture—income, credit, debts, assets—and provides a framework for your purchase price, payment range, and rate options. It’s the only way to get a reliable answer to the question, “What can I really afford?” Final Thoughts Online calculators are convenient, but they can’t replace expert advice. Think of them as a starting point, not a solution. A professional mortgage broker can interpret the numbers, navigate lender policies, and tailor your financing strategy to your actual situation. If you’d like help understanding your true buying power—or want to get pre-approved with confidence— reach out anytime . I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you make sense of the numbers.
By Matthew Chan July 22, 2026
Going Through a Divorce? Don’t Let Your Credit Take the Hit Divorce is stressful enough without adding financial fallout to the mix. Between lawyers, paperwork, and emotional strain, it’s easy to overlook how a separation can impact your credit. But your financial future depends on protecting it now—because long after the dust settles, a damaged credit score can linger. Here are a few smart steps to help keep your credit strong and your finances steady as you move forward. 1. Take Control of Joint Debts When it comes to joint debt, both parties are equally responsible—no matter what your divorce agreement says. If your ex misses a payment on an account with your name attached, your credit takes the hit too. Go through all joint credit cards, loans, and lines of credit. Wherever possible: Close joint accounts to stop future shared use. Transfer balances to the person responsible for repayment. Notify lenders in writing of any changes to account ownership. Once everything is updated, pull your credit report after three to six months to confirm all joint accounts have been closed and reporting correctly. Mistakes happen—stay proactive to prevent surprises later. 2. Open Your Own Bank Accounts Separation means financial independence, and that starts with your own banking. Open a new chequing account in your name only and redirect your pay deposits and bill payments there. At the same time, close any joint bank accounts and change passwords on existing online banking and credit profiles. Even in peaceful separations, shared access can cause confusion—or conflict. Protect yourself by ensuring your money and information are secure. 3. Start Building Credit in Your Name If most of your past credit was tied to your spouse’s name, now’s the time to establish your own. Apply for a small personal credit card or secured credit product . Use it sparingly and pay it off in full each month. This helps you build a solid individual credit history, setting the stage for future goals like buying a home, refinancing, or starting fresh financially. 4. Keep an Eye on Your Credit Monitor your credit report regularly for errors or unexpected changes. You can request free reports from both major credit bureaus in Canada— Equifax and TransUnion —once a year. Tracking your credit isn’t just about catching mistakes; it helps you see your progress as you rebuild your financial independence. Final Thoughts Divorce can be emotionally draining, but protecting your credit doesn’t have to be complicated. By taking a few careful steps now—closing joint accounts, building credit in your name, and monitoring your reports—you’ll safeguard your financial health and gain peace of mind as you start your next chapter. If you’d like personalized guidance on managing credit during or after a divorce, reach out anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through your options.
By Matthew Chan July 15, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The tone of today's announcement is notably more optimistic than previous months. Here's what's changed and what it means for you.